Back in the saddle

The weather is starting to crank up after a long period of quiet . Keeping an eye on a snowstorm and a tropical storm.
This is the time of year when I start to immerse myself into weather. Don’t get me wrong, I live, eat and breathe weather 365 days a year. Things always seem to ramp up a bit more this time of year. Usually it’s September. We’ve had quite a bit of quiet weather through September, so I’ve been out enjoying that. Now, it seems things are going to get more active weatherwise as we head through early October.

I don’t want you to think the weather is going to get unglued in our neck of the woods. It’s not. If anything, our weather will remain unusually mild/warm right through the weekend. The only difference is that there will be some raindrops that we have to dodge. The precipitation will be found along a warm front, which will essentially park itself over us this weekend. You will notice an increase in humidity and believe it or not, warmth. Temperatures will flirt with 80. Right now, Friday and Sunday appear to be our best chance to see showers. You want the truth. I’m beginning to think that Sunday could end up rain-free for much of the day.

A couple more things to keep an eye on through the weekend. 1 is what will likely become tropical storm Karen. I’m not expecting any significant impact from the storm on our weather. However, assuming it ends up forming, our computer forecast models have been showing the tropical feed of moisture from Karen shooting north-northeastward through the Southeastern US and perhaps taking aim on New England by early next week. Of course, depending on the track of that system, it remains to be seen what if any effects from that storm can be expected here. If, and it’s a big if, we’re to see rain from this system, it would come Monday or Tuesday of next week. I’ll certainly have more on that over the next couple of days.

The second item to watch is a major winter storm over the Rockies the next couple of days. Now, before you throw something at the computer screen, please understand that we WILL NOT see snow from this storm. The cold air is settling into the Rockies’ states, and when that storm does eject out of that area, it most likely will take a track to our west. The counterclockwise wind flow around this storm, will place us on the warm side of the storm, with southerly winds. While meteorologically this will be exciting to watch because it tells me the jet stream is starting to get energetic as we move deeper into fall, it also means that there is cold air plunging south from Canada and now we need to be on guard for rapid weather swings.

That’s where we stand now. I’ll have much more Thursday and Friday as everything unfolds, and our computer forecast models begin to converge on a solution.

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