LocalSYR

Does it get stormy next week? (11-8-13)

<B>(6 pm Friday November 8th)</B>We had a touch of wintry weather in Syracuse Friday but is there more winter weather in our future at the end of next week?
Over the last couple days the chatter has picked over the internet about a possible East Coast storm at the end of next week. Some may have been wondering why I hadn’t blogged about this before today.  Part of the reason is there has been some disagreement from the models over the last 24 hours.

Here is the set up.

First, We have a huge, unusually chilly air mass dropping south out of Canada Monday and Tuesday into the middle of the country then the Northeast.  We are likely to see 30s for high temperatures here with record breaking cold to our wet.  This cold is a go no matter what happens along the East Coast at the end of next week.

Second, the models, for a time, latched onto a disturbance dropping south out of Canada with the cold then took that disturbance and spun up a low somewhere near the Mid Atlantic coast. At times over the last couple of days some of the models have tried to track the low close to the coast with wintry precipitation over the Northeast (and central New York) next Thursday.

The problem is the models this time of year like to spin up coastal storms in the 7 to 14 day time frame.  More often than not they are wrong.  If I wrote a blog every time there was a storm showing up 8, 11, 14 days down the road it would get real old real fast.

Well today I’ve been looking at the medium range computer models available to us and they point to a much weaker storm and farther east solution.  The model with the low farthest west is the European model and as you can see it even that solution is not much of a threat to us:



So the chances for an East Coast storm at the end of next week look low. I won’t say its 0% because the models could flip back the other way as we get closer to next Thursday. Part of the problem is the disturbance that is really the key to everything won’t move into the United States until Monday. I think if the models continue to steer this potential storm off the coast even after we see the models on Monday then I will start to breath easy.
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