First Lake Effect then a Freeze....(10-11-12)

<B>(11:45 am Thursday October 11th)</B>It may have been mostly rain last night and early today but it was lake effect precipitation. Now we start to focus on the upcoming coldest night of the Fall season so far.
The latest shot of chilly air arrived last night in central New York with a bit of a punch.  Because the air aloft was so chilly (about -4c while the lake is still +16c) we had tremendous growth to the clouds in the lower atmosphere for a short time overnight.  There were numerous reports of thunder and lightning along with graupel and a little wet snow.  If you are unfamiliar with ‘graupel’ read this blog from Dave Longley earlier in the year.

The cold weather for the start of the weekend  is coming into better focus.  I’m going to include a map right off the 00z NAM computer model.  Technically, this is a forecast for 2 meters above the ground (about 6 feet) but gives us a good starting point when forecasting temperatures. This is a snapshot for just before sunrise Saturday.

The model is keying in on a swath of terrain south and southeast of Syracuse where the lowest 2 meter temperatures will be found. 20 to 25 f readings will be common and since the coldest air settles closer to the ground there could be some even lower readings that turn up.  The record for Syracuse that morning is 28 set in 2006 and we will challenge that record. Needless to say, most, if not all of central New York will have a killing frost bringing an end to the growing season.

With all this talk of chilly weather I thought I would leave you with this snapshot of where the United States is in terms of temperature for the year.  Here is an interesting graph we posted last month showing the progression of yearly  month by month.  It is now updated to include the month of September.

The distance that this year has put between itself and all the other years is impressive.  We are still more than a full degree ahead of any other year.  Even if our temperatures average near normal from October through December we will still have the warmest year since 1895.
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