How long does the heat last? (6-21-13)

<B>(8:30 pm Friday June 21st)</B> While central New York is poised to get into its first bout of heat and humidity for the summer season this weekend there are already strong signals as to when it will end.
We are in store for true summery weather here in central New York over the next couple of days.  We’ll no doubt be focusing in on our chances for thunderstorms in this very warm and humid air mass right up into the end of next week.  Even though we aren’t yet in the hot and humid air (as of Friday night) we are already starting to get a look at when and how this warm pattern will ultimately change.

Going into next weekend and most likely into the first week of July we are looking at the return of the Eastern U.S. trough at the jet stream level. This change will be signalled by a cold front either later Thursday or Friday of next week. There is actually good agreement from our two main long term computer model camps - the GFS and European.  Here is a map that shows the average jet stream pattern from both models for the 3 days ending Monday July 1st:

Both models are in good agreement in placing the trough on a north-south line from James Bay in Canada south to Lake Erie. A pattern like this will likely lead to below normal temperatures in central New York (normal being just above 80 degrees by that point).  I would lean toward above normal chances for rainfall as well but this part of the change is trickier. A slight shift east in the position of the trough could put us in a cool but dry pattern.  Stay tuned on this part.

The other take away from these maps is it is going to be hot and dry across the Rockies.  This is not good news for the people fighting brush fires as well as a continuing drought. 

On top of all this, the ridge of high pressure that builds over the Rockies snakes its way north into Alaska which will mean more heat for those folks as well..
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