Models throw us some curves... (9-28-2012)

<B>(6:00 pm Friday September 28th)</B>There are some changes in our forecast for early next week and some Pacific moisture may be culprit.
We can tell we are getting deeper into the fall season as we are seeing more day to day swings in the solutions we get from the computer models that we use for our weather forecasts.  That leads to lower confidence in our forecasts in the 3 to 7 day range.  That’s why you are likely to see some flip flopping from time to time to time in our 7 day forecast. One of those ‘flips’ came today for next Tuesday. Yesterday it was a dry forecast now we have rain.

I was looking at the weather maps this afternoon and I was able to track some of Tuesday’s moisture back to Tropical Storm Norman that was making landfall in along the west coast of Mexico near the Baja today (Friday).  Our computer models take this moisture into Texas then on a track to the northeast.  Here are a couple of maps from the GFS that show the progression of this system:

Given the tropical nature of the moisture it looks like Tuesday would be our best chance for rain over the next four or five days.

Beyond Tuesday our next significant feature is a change to cooler weather. The leading edge to this cooler air is a cold front but there is still some question as to exactly when the front will come through central New York (again the models having timing issues).  The GFS says Thursday night while the European model says Friday.  Regardless of when this frontal passage takes place another step down in temperature is in store for the first weekend of October.  Here is a side by side comparison of the GFS and European ensemble means for October 5-7th:

Notice that the trough of low pressure is deeper (it has a bigger dip) on the European model and if that is the one that ends up verifying we could be looking at temperatures that only rise into the 50s even with sunshine.

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