Our last 70 degree day???? (11-9-12)

<B>(5:40 pm Friday November 9th)</B>With 70 degree weather in the forecast for Veteran's Day it made us wonder what were are the historical odds of this being the last time it gets this warm in 2012.
After being stuck in a rut of 40 degree high temperatures since Halloween, things are looking up for us as we head toward the end of the weekend.  We are seeing a warm air mass currently building across the Plains with widespread 70s and even 80 degree weather. The forecast is for a high of 70 in Syracuse on Sunday which would be within striking range of the record of 72 set in 2002.  That made me think that Sunday or Monday (we are forecasting 67 for that day) could very well be the last 70 degree day for the year in Syracuse.  It also made me wonder how unusual it is for us to warm to 70 or higher after Veteran’s Day.  

I looked back at the last 30 years and found this break down of what month the last brush with 70 degree day occurred.

Month When Last 70 F Occurred
October  12 Years  (40%)
November  16 Years (53%)
December  2 Years (7%)

What surprised me when I looked at the numbers was that a large minority of years over the 30 years of my study had 70 F weather AFTER Veteran’s Day (November 11th).  Nine times that has happened since 1982.  The last time was 2006 when we hit 70 on December 6th!  So while odds say this Sunday (or Monday) is the last time we hit 70 until 2013, it wouldn’t be out of the ordinary if it were to happen one more time.
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