Sandy forms in the Caribbean....(10-22-12)

<B>(6:00 pm Monday October 22nd)</B>While we enjoy a week of above normal temperatures here in central New York, Tropical Storm Sandy has formed in the Caribbean Sea. It MAY have an impact on the East Coast next week.
As we mentioned at the end of last week, some mild air would be destined for central New York this week. As nice as today’s mid 60s was we are still on target for 70 degree weather for Thursday and Friday.  As warm it is will be we think we end up just below record levels for these days.

Late this afternoon, the National Hurricane Center upgraded an area of disturbed weather near Jamaica to Tropical Storm Sandy. 

Normally this late into the season we wouldn’t be too concerned about a tropical system here in the higher latitudes of the Northeast. However, a few (but not all) of our computer models are taking Sandy north where it combines with some jet stream energy moving into the Eastern United States carving out a trough of low pressure. This creates an intense non-tropical low off the East Coast in the Monday through Wednesday time frame next week. Here is a look at the European model forecast for Halloween next Wednesday.

The barometric pressure forecast by both the European and Canadian models would make this storm stronger (in terms of pressure) than the Storm of the Century back in March 1993. Keep in mind,though, this is just a couple of computer solution. Another computer model we use in the long range (the GFS) keeps this storm well of the coast with little impact for the Northeast.  So at this point I’m not going to speculate any further about what might happen early next week. We are, after all, dealing with computer models trying to pinpoint a storm potentially nine days down the road. Suffice it to say, though, we will need to keep a close eye on Sandy as well as the trough of low pressure moving into the East later this weekend.

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