Some signs of change....(10-11-13)

<B>(8:30 pm Friday October 11th)</B> While October 2013 in Syracuse is running about 6 degrees warmer than normal, there are changes that will start to show up at the jet stream level in about a week that will lead to a cool down.

We are finishing this second week in October on the mild side.  Friday ended up 6 degrees above normal and that is an impressive feat considering a) we were fighting clouds much of the day and b) we didn’t have much in the way of wind to import warmer air and compensate for the lack of sun.

Our current stretch of mild weather started shortly after Fall officially began (September 22nd) and for the last 17 days in a row our high temperatures have been above normal. We’ve at least been in the 60s each of those days and on 11  we’ve exceeded 70 degrees.  We haven’t really challenged any record highs during this time, we’ve just been consistently warm.

As mentioned on the weathercast this evening (Friday) the weekend looks like another warm one with temperatures just getting past 70 degrees so that streak will continue.  At the end of last month, that would be considered near normal but now it is about 10 degrees above normal.  That’s just a sign of how much ground we are losing in the average temperature department.  

Here is a look at the current jet stream flow over North America. It really tells the story of our current warmth.

I’ve drawn arrows where the main jet stream winds are aloft and you can pick up a trough of low pressure digging in the west with the flow moving through the Plains and then into eastern Canada which is a sign of high pressure aloft. As an aside, I’ve put an ‘L’ on the map where the coastal storm we’ve been tracking all week is located. It has been so tough for the computer models to forecast because it is separated from the main jet stream flow.  

While our temperatures are likely to stay above normal through the weekend and into next week, there are some signs of change in the offing.  Those changes are showing up in the computer models toward the end of next week and I’m going to include a couple jet stream maps from the ensemble means of both the GFS and European models. I like to look at these because they are a combination of many runs of these models and smooth out some of the extreme solutions of any individual run.  First, here is the GFS look at the jet stream for next Saturday, October 19th.

This is just one model’s ‘opinion’ of what might unfold after the middle of the month.  By itself, we would be a little skeptical of what the GFS is saying given its recent track record looking out 7 days plus. It was, for example, the GFS advertising earlier in the month that some chilly air would be diving into central New York this weekend and that obviously isn’t going to happen.  However, we do have a second ‘opinion’ that does give at least some support to what the GFS is saying. Here is the European model for the same period:

So the bottom line for us is this: we are in store for a ‘cool down’ starting next weekend.  I say next weekend because the models tend to have problems keying in on the exact day of the cool air’s arrival when you are looking out 7+ days. Just how cool remains to be seen.  Just keep in mind, ‘normal’ by next weekend is upper 50s for a high in Syracuse so even if we are just a bit below normal that means low to mid 50s. In addition, there are questions as to just how long the cool air sticks around once it gets here.  Stay tuned.

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