Temperatures Losing Ground....(11-19-12)

<B>(5:30 pm Monday November 19th)</B> Our quiet, sunny November continues here in central New York. However, you may be suprised to hear that in spite of this weather, our temperatures for the month are still below normal.
Although we’ve had some nice warm afternoons over the last week we are actually losing ground in the monthly mean temperature.  It’s not just the high temperature that goes into the mean but the low temperature as well.  It’s all those lows in the 20s that is weighing is down.

DayHigh Temp AnomalyLow Temp AnomalyMean Temp Anomaly
Wednesday-3 (46F)-5 (28F)-4
Thursday-3 (46F)-8 (25F)-5
Friday+1 (49F)-9 (24F)-4
Saturday+2 (50F)-7 (26F)-2
Sunday+1 (49F)-8 (24F)-3
Monday+5 (52F)-5 (27F)0

As of today we were about 2 degrees below normal for the month and although our overnight lows will be coming up over the next few days (along with the daytimes highs) it may be too much of a hole for us to climb out of this late in the month.  We could be looking at our first back to back below normal months in temperature since February and March of 2011.

I was also looking at Thanksgiving climatology here in Syracuse and although our forecast of 55 for Thursday will come up short of the record for the warmest Thanksgiving (66 in 1941 is the record) this year’s Thanksgiving weather will be unusual.  It hasn’t been this warm AND dry on Thanksgiving since all the way back in 1963.

Enjoy the weather over the next few days because there are signs that our weather will be changing come the weekend.  Our computer models are in excellent agreement that a strong cold front moves through here on Friday.  That will knock the wind out of our sails so to speak. 

It’s still too early in the game to get into any details, but you should be in the mid frame for blustery and much cooler weather for Saturday with lake effect rain and eventually snow.
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