Trending cooler for late October...(10-15-13)

<B>(6:00 pm Tuesday October 15th)</B> Warm weather continues to roll on in central New York but changes is on the horizon. Here is the latest on the cool down and the other changes that are likely.

Over the last couple of days, one of the highlights of our forecast is the return of cooler weather this weekend.  Instead of a quick change to cooler weather it is more of a gradual drop that will result in below normal temperatures by Sunday.  It is a little early, but this could be the start of a cooler pattern that could take us through all of next week. Here is the 8 to 14 day temperature forecast:

The reason for the change is the drop of the jet stream from southern Canada down into the lower 48. Here is what the GFS is showing will happen to the jet stream by early next week:

This will bring us a couple of other noticeable changes.  One of the changes is we’ll be experiencing more wind.  The wind has been lacking so far the first half of the month.  The average wind speed over the whole month is 8.8 mph but through October 14th, we were averaging 4.6 mph, down almost 50% compared to normal. In fact, last Friday our average wind speed was only .5 mph which may be one of the least windy days we’ve seen in Syracuse in years.

Also, the jet stream being closer to us will mean a quicker pace to systems tracking across the northern tier of states.  Instead of having stretches of 4 or 5 days with dry weather and sunshine like we’ve seen over the last month, we are going to have storm systems move through every couple of days bringing with them clouds and showers

So the weather is going to start to act more like fall for the last half of October and at some point in the next couple of weeks we will likely put some snow in the forecast. I won’t give a date this might be happen just yet but given the pattern shaping up I can’t see us getting out of the month without some of the white stuff.  It will probably be just some flakes in the air which may seem unusual.  However, I looked over the last 30 years, exactly 50% of the years featured at least a trace of snow at some point during the last half of October so it appears we will be right on schedule.

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