Warm again next week but potential more active

<B>(6:00 pm Tuesday August 20th)</B> The return of summer warmth this week has been accompanied by dry weather. After a break this weekend, the warmth returns next week but showers and storms could be more common this time around.

The weather into the upcoming weekend looks pretty straight forward.  We have the warm, dry weather through midweek, a cold front comes through Thursday night then another dome of high pressure moves in for Friday, Saturday and Sunday.  After that, things get a bit uncertain.

One thing that looks certain is the hottest weather will shift west into the middle of the country next week.  It won’t exactly be record breaking heat but there should be plenty of 90s.  Here is a look at the latest 6-10 day forecast using the 6-10 jet stream forecast from both the GFS and European ensemble means. These maps are an average between Tuesday and Friday next week.

While these maps suggest the ‘core’ of the hottest weather will set up to the west of central New York, our temperatures are likely to still average above normal.  Keep in mind, our highs next week are in the upper 70s so anything in the 80s will be above normal for us.

Typically, on the eastern edge or periphery of this type of heat, showers and thunderstorms are common.  Exactly where this zone sets up is up for debate.  Yesterday (Monday) it looked like it would be very close to us here in central New York and today (Tuesday), the models seem to be a little farther north.

The bottom line for us is next week (the last week of August) is more summer warmth seems to be in the cards but unlike this week, we may have to deal with a few rounds of showers and thunderstorms.

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