What does our hot summer mean.....(8-3-12)

<B>(9:15 pm Friday August 3rd)</B> While we just entered the month of August and offcially summer does end for another 6 weeks some people are already wondering wha, if anything, our hot summer means for the upcoming winter.
It’s inevitable and it happens every year around this time.  No, I’m not talking about the Great New York State Fair.  I’m talking about the questions about the upcoming winter.  Even my Mom asked me that question during lunch today! The question is usually amplified through whatever the current summer weather.  This year it is framed by the heat.  What does our hot summer mean for upcoming winter?

Here are the top ten hottest summers since records have been kept at the airport with the snowfall that occurred during the following winters.

YearSummer TempWinter Snow
2005 73.7 F124.6”
1949 73.5 F118.0”
1955 73.2 F146.8”
2011 72.2 F50.6”
1973 71.9 F123.2”
1959 71.7 F134.8”
1995 71.6 F170.6”
2002 71.5 F153.2”
1999 71.2 F85.8”
2010 71.1 F179.0”

("Summer Temps" are mean temperatures for the combined months of June, July, August)

Of course, the hot summer will be just one of the variables we’ll look at when we come up with our Winter forecast.  In fact, I looked closely at these ten years to see if any also occurred during an El Nino.  That is the warming of the waters near the equator in the Pacific Ocean. Currently the waters in the equatorial Pacific are warming and it is believed we are heading toward an El Nino set up this winter.  Only one winter fits that category and that was 1955 which means we don’t have a large sample to go by.

Anyhow, we have plenty of time when it comes to making our winter forecast. We think sifting through fall patterns are just, if not more, important than looking at what the summer did.  As always, we won’t be making our 2012-’13 Winter forecast until three months from now in November.
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