LocalSYR

Where will the Summer rank? (8-15-12)

<B>(10:45 am Wednesday August 15th)</B> With us reaching mid August the summer season is rapidly coming to a close. Where does our hot summer stand and can we break a record?


If you’ve read my blogs this summer you know that I’ve mentioned the number of 90 degrees days but I’ve also brought up on several occasions 80 degree weather as another way to gauge our summer heat.  Earlier this summer we had 22 straight days with a high of 80 degrees or higher.  It tied for the 5th longest such streak in Syracuse history and technically was far from the record of 43 days set in 1955.  However, that streak was broken July 20th when we were ‘only’ 79. Since then we’ve had one other day below 80 (August 6th) and again we were 79 degrees.  That means there are only two degrees separating us from having 48 straight days of 80 degree heat this summer.

When you look at the summer as a whole (June-August) it looks like we will fall short of the overall record for the hottest summer.  The hottest summer was 2005 and as of now (mid August) we are tied with that summer when it comes to mean temperature.
 

YearSummer Temp.
200573.7 F
201273.7 F*
194973.5 F
195573.2 F
201172.2 F

*Through August 13th

Keeping at that record level over the next two weeks until the end of the month may be tough.  To stay at 73.7 F think of it this way: we roughly need to average days with highs of 83 with lows of 63. To put it into perspective, next week our average high is close to 80 while the low near 60, which means we have to stay above normal with our temperature until the end of the month.  

While it stays relatively warm over the next couple of days, by Friday a cold front moves through which will have a big impact on our weather.  It may be the strongest cold front we’ve seen here in central New York in about two months.  Behind the front is certainly cooler weather -- we are likely to have consecutive days in the 70s for the first time since the end of June. On those days our mean temperatures are going to average in the low 60s which will drag our summer average down. While we may recover a bit later next week into the 80s again signs point toward cooler weather in time for the following weekend (the first weekend of the Fair). Here is a map from the GFS model that shows temperatures at 5,000 feet relative to normal:




Usually this cooler air aloft leads to cooler than normal temperatures down at the ground. So with these shots of cooler air over the next two weekends our chances of having the warmest summer on record decrease.  Still, a top five summer seems in reach.






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