LocalSYR

A Nor'easter for the East Coast....(11-5-12)

<B>(5:40 pm Monday November 5th)</B> A storm-weary East Coast is preparing for another coastal storm that could hinder clean up efforts during the middle of the week.
The chatter continues to increase about a storm for the East Coast for the middle of this week.  Unlike last week, however, this time around we will be dealing with a purely Nor’easter storm.  There will be NO tropical component to this system so the intensity will be no where near the level of Sandy.  

After some disagreement from the models at the end of last week, this week they all agree on a storm forming along the coast in the Wednesday/Thursday time frame although the intensity and location varies.




Amazingly, for as close to the coast as these Monday models are with the storm, they all keep Syracuse dry during the height of the storm.  So the models are still trying to resolve the exact path of the Nor’easter and there will likely be more subtle changes over the next two days, but it looks like most of central New York will be on the western fringe of this system.  Right now we think any accumulation of snow for us here in the Syracuse will be very light with the best chance for accumulation coming over higher elevations. A better chance for a significant snow (3” or greater) will end up east of Syracuse, say east of a line from Binghamton -Cooperstown-Utica

The pattern that made Sandy so destructive last week and will allow this week’s Nor’easter looks like it will break down after Thursday.  It’s a blocking pattern that shows up when the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) is in the negative phase.  

In the next few days the NAO is forecast to go positive while another index we look at, the Pacific-North American index, should go strongly negative.  That is a recipe for milder than normal weather for us here in the East and explains why we have 60 degree warmth back in the 7 day forecast.
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