Early afternoon thunderstorms today

<B>(Monday Afternoon, June 17, 2013)</B> We started the work week on a dry and somewhat humid note. However this afternoon, thunderstorms have already begun to pop, with the threat for thunderstorms with us until mid-afternoon. These storms will move off to our east later this afternoon as the sun will return.
On the weather map, a pair of cold fronts is evident over the Great Lakes and Northeast.  The first cold front or the closest to Central New York is positioned right over the region.  The second cold front stretches from southern Ontario, Canada west through the central and western Great Lakes.  Over the next 24 hours, both cold fronts will continue to crawl east; however, the first cold front is expected to weaken.

The upshot of it all is that scattered thunderstorms are happening across the Finger Lakes and Syracuse areas as of this afternoon.  Most computer models suggest the threat for thunderstorms will ease and shift east/south of the Syracuse area after 3 pm.  There is also an outside chance for thunderstorms to become locally strong to severe with torrential downpours, hail and strong wind gusts.  It should be noted that we are not expecting a wide spread severe weather event today.

As noted above, the cold front(s) won’t exactly be moving quickly, consequently, the threat for showers and thunderstorms remains into the first half of Tuesday.  Right now, indications are that showers and thunderstorms are most likely from midnight tonight through to midday tomorrow, or about a 12 hour window. 

Thereafter, drier air is forecast to arrive for Tuesday afternoon, thus we expect sunshine to develop for the second half of the day.  Sunny and pleasantly mild weather will continue Wednesday and Thursday as a strong Canadian high pressure builds into the region.  This means you can expect somewhat chilly early mornings followed by pleasantly mild afternoons.

This high pressure system is likely to stick around until Saturday, but there will be more moisture in the atmosphere.  This combined with temperatures in the middle 80’s means we will run the risk for an isolated thunderstorm.  The arrival of the warmer and more humid air is right on cue as Saturday will be our first full day of summer.  While a spotty thunderstorm is possible Saturday, at this point it looks like the greatest chances of thunderstorms will be on Sunday as low pressure and cold front approach the region from the west.

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