More Details on Midweek Storm...(12-25-12)

<B>(8:30 pm Tuesday December 25th)</B> We continue to move closer to the arrival of our post-Christmas snow storm. Winter Storm Warnings are up for all of central New York. Here is what we think will fall.
The storm that is slated to impact us here in central New York in less than 24 hours is already a headline maker across the southern part of the United States.  More than a dozen reports of tornadoes over the Deep South Tuesday and across Texas and Oklahoma there is snow, and even blizzard warnings.  So this is one energetic storm.  Over the next 24 to 36 hours the storm should evolve pretty close to what we’ve been thinking the last few days. Winter Storm Warnings are up starting at 2 pm Wednesday but we still think the snow in Syracuse holds off until after sunset. There will be no problems on local roads while the sun is up.

Here is current thinking (as of Tuesday night) for storm totals for Wednesday night through Thursday (the bulk of these totals coming Wednesday Night).

Now the storm total is pretty high for Syracuse at 8-12” but I would have gone a bit higher if not for a few nagging issues from the computer models.  For the last few days, the main models we use (NAM,GFS, European) have hinted that a relative minimum of precipitation would come over areas just east of Syracuse.  With our winds likely to be out of the east the models may be latching onto the effects of the winds coming off the Catskills and ‘downsloping’ The models may be overdoing this anti-bullseye of precipitation but still it gives me a bit of pause when making the snow forecast for areas from Syracuse east.

Also, even though the models have trended cooler the last few days, I’m still seeing sleet showing up from time to time on some of the computer runs, especially the NAM. There is nothing that would ruin a snowfall forecast than the ‘ping’ of sleet coming down on us.

Even with these doubts, we are still forecasting a major, impactful snowfall for Syracuse, one that will certainly slow us down.  We still think the height of this storm will be Wednesday night with the snow easing through the day Thursday. One thing we have the highest confidence in is that the biggest snow totals will end up just west of Syracuse.

There probably won’t be a blog tomorrow as we’ll be in full storm mode but feel free to e-mail snow totals into the office at stormteam@9wsyr.com or post them on our facebook page.

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