A complex and challenging weather set-up is still impacting central New York midday Thursday. A quasi-stationary (or somewhat stationary) frontal boundary is draped from off the southern New England Coast west along the Mason-Dixon Line into the northern Ohio Valley. Multiple areas of low pressure are evident along the portions of the frontal boundary. Well north of Lake Superior, a strong area of high pressure is funneling unseasonably chilly air south into the Northeast and Great Lakes region, including Central New York.
Over the next 24 hours, the complex frontal boundary and its associated areas of low pressure will move east and toward the region. Is this happens, periods of rain are likely from Syracuse south. Meanwhile as the steadier rain arrives, the aforementioned high pressure system over southern Canada will continue allow for colder air to ooze south into the Northeast and eastern Great Lakes regions. This may allow for freezing rain to fall in parts of Central New York. Right now is appears that areas adjacent to Lake Ontario, in particular east of Lake Ontario, will have the greatest threat for some freezing rain along with some snow or even sleet.
Rain will continue tonight into tomorrow, again heavy rain is possible. Because of the recent rainfall, the prospect for more (possibly heavy) rain, and the lack of vegetation to absorb water from the soil, we’ll need to watch for the threat of flooding. Eventually the frontal boundary and associated low pressure systems will move east of the region, but that likely won’t happen until sometime tomorrow afternoon. Even though the steadiest rain will be done, there will still be areas of drizzle the rest of the day and it will remain rather damp. Consequently, the Chiefs home opener is in jeopardy of happening.
Upper level low pressure is forecast to move through the region Saturday, thus the threat for more showers of rain or even some snow. Finally dry, but somewhat cool, weather will arrive Sunday. We may see a return to unsettled weather next week, though temperatures should return to near or even somewhat above normal levels.