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Storm Team 2018 Summer Outlook

EAST SYRACUSE, N.Y. (WSYR-TV) - Here is the Storm Team Summer 2018  forecast for central New York: 

  • Temperatures end up near normal for the summer months of June through August 
  • We should still see between 6 and 9 days where we reach or exceed 90 degree days
  • Rainfall will average a bit above normal

When we make a seasonal forecast, the method we like to look back at is the most recent winter as well as current spring patterns find something unusual then compare them to similar years in the past.

The two things that stuck out to me when making this summer’s forecast were 1) the seasonal snowfall this past winter and 2) the much cooler than normal months of March/April. 

Thanks to a very snowy end to the season (it was one of the snowiest Marches on record), the Winter of 2017-18 ended up as the 10th snowiest on record in Syracuse with 153.6”

In addition, the combo of this March and April ended up as the 7th coldest on record. Records in Syracuse go back to 1902

We looked back at some of the other snowiest winters and they weren’t followed by many very hot summers.

What do I use as my criteria for ‘very hot’ summers?  Typically, I look at the number of 90 degree days in a year.  Since 1950, that number has averaged at about 9 days in Syracuse.  

Over the last two decades there have been 4 summers where we had at least twenty 90 degree days.

In our winters with at least 145” of snow the average number of 90 degree days the following summers is only 8, very close to a ‘normal’ summer.

Summer rainfall can be a bit tougher to figure out.  We are at the mercy of scattered showers and storms throughout the summer.  Some places get hit with a quick inch or rain while other places 10 or 20 miles away end up with next to nothing.

That being said, when we looked at the snowy winters and cool March/April connection we found some similarities.  The average rainfall in summers after a snowy winter was 11.73” while after a cool March/April the average was 11.42”  The normal for a June-August period in Syracuse is 10.66”

That comes out to about to about an inch more than normal but when spread out over a 3 month period that isn’t much above normal.

So that’s the method behind the summer forecast.  Now break out the hamburgers, hot dogs and potato salad!

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