Storm Team Summer Outlook

SYRACUSE (WSYR-TV) - The Storm Team Summer Outlook for Central New York this year is for near normal temperatures.  Specifically, we think there will be 4-7 days with 90 degrees or warmer in Syracuse  That is just a bit below normal of 8 days.

Rainfall will be above normal in the June to August period with the strongest signal pointing toward a wetter than normal August.

To make the summer forecast, we used an analog method which looks back at years that have had similar weather to what 2017 has given us so far. We focused our research on years since weather records have been kept at the Syracuse airport since 1949.

The biggest signals we leaned on for our Summer Forecast were cool Marches and Mays.  Even though we still have a week to go in May 2017, it looks like we will end up cooler than normal weather for the month.

We found 11 years that fit that criteria and most (9 out of 11) had near or below normal temperatures. Only two previous years, 2005 and 1952, ended up with warmer than normal summers and greater than normal 90 degree days. 2005 ended up with 15 days and 1952 19 days.

This this year our Spring rainfall is running well above normal, we also looked at wet Springs. However,  when looking at the top 10 or even top 20 wettest March-May periods we found a wide range of summer temperatures. Several past summers had no 90 degree heat while one summer, 2002, ended up with 26 90 degree days!

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