Get this...temperatures were near 80 in St. Louis Monday afternoon. There were widespread 70s in what will become the warm sector of our storm. The energy which will make up the storm is just crossing the northern Rockies late Monday. The storm will be able to tap into some of that warmth and now with the absence of cold air, we're thinking that any snow will mix with or change over to rain for awhile Wednesday.
With the lack of cold air over us, or in advance of the storm, I'm really having a hard time seeing this as an all snow event for CNY.
Eventually, as the storm moves into eastern Pennsylvania later Wednesday, we'll have no choice but to turn cooler and any rain or winter mix will change over to snow Wednesday evening. It is not out of the realm of possibility that the snow part of this storm will occur Wednesday night only, and for much of the day Wednesday, CNY could end up with chilly rain during the day Wednesday.
We did not post a snowfall map for the storm yet. Honestly, this is far from a slam dunk. I don't feel comfortable putting a map out there just yet. Now that I see the incredible warmth to our south, and the lack of cold air, I'm beginning to have my doubts as to just how much snow will fall.
I'm hoping that these updates will give you some insight into my thinking.
As always, if you have questions you can e-mail me at DaveLongley@localsyr.com
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