Still no change in the weather pattern expected here in the eastern United States as we start of the big 4th of July holiday weekend with the major weather players having not moved much over the past couple of days. Low pressure in the upper atmosphere remains over the Tennessee Valley/Mid-West with a strong area of high pressure anchored off the East Coast. The circulation around these two systems (counter-clockwise around low pressure and clockwise around high pressure) is creating a tropical feed of moisture that is working northward up the coast into Central New York.
Given the set up over us is not going to change too much over the next couple of days we don’t think there will be too much change in our weather. That means a continuation of the hazy and very warm days with temperatures well into the 80s, to near 90 at times, through Saturday. There will also be a scattering of mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms each day, some with very heavy rain.
We will finally start to see some subtle changes in the pattern later this weekend into early next week. The stubborn and stalled trough, or low pressure in the middle and upper atmosphere, located over the Tennessee Valley, is forecast by most computer models to move east and over the Northeast in the Sunday-Monday time frame. This will likely prevent temperatures from reaching 90 degrees. Additionally, the threat for somewhat more widespread showers and thunderstorms will likely be at least a bit greater.
Once the trough of low pressure moves through later Monday we will lose our tropical feed of moisture but it will still feel a bit humid at least through the middle of next week. In addition, our temperatures will take a run at 90 degrees again.