Sunny & warm with rain arriving tonight

<B>(Monday Afternoon April 8, 2013)</B> Expect more sun than clouds as temperatures reach into the low-to-mid 60s. Showers and thunderstorms will arrive tonight, signaling a potentially active few days ahead.

High pressure is centered well north of Lake Ontario with a frontal boundary draped from southern New England west through the Plain and Rocky Mountain states.  This frontal boundary will serve as a focal point for multiple areas of low pressure that are forecast to impact our region this week.  Additionally, the position of the front will determine temperatures for much of the week ahead.

Over the next 24 hours, the boundary is forecast to move north as a warm front, the leading edge to warmer air, as low pressure advances east from the mid-section of the country.  By this time tomorrow it’s expected that this low pressure will be centered over the Adirondacks.  In doing so, clouds will increase later today with a gusty south wind increasing as well tonight.  Showers and thunderstorms are also expected to form as low pressure moves north of Thruway tonight.  It should also be noted that with fairly impressive wind energy in the middle parts of the atmosphere, some thunderstorms may have some gusty wind tonight.  Most of the night will be very mild with temperatures in the 50s and lower 60s.

With the low pressure moving east and off the New England Coast tomorrow, it will drag the boundary south (after briefly moving north of CNY tonight) of the region for tomorrow.  Consequently, expect a mostly dry day tomorrow with highs in the lower 60s.    By Wednesday, the frontal boundary is forecast to move north again, and possibly north of Central New York.  However, the forecast position of the boundary come mid-week is far from certain, thus, so is our temperature forecast.  Should the front lift to our north, the high temperatures could close in on 70, should the front remain well south, highs may not escape the 50s. With the frontal zone, or area of temperature change, in the area the threat for showers and thunderstorms will increase Wednesday. 

Meanwhile, another area of low pressure is forecast to eject east from the mid-section of the country along the frontal boundary and should affect the region Thursday with possibly a third storm impacting the region Friday.  The upshot of it all is that the threat for rain will be with us for the end of the work week.  As for high temperatures, well that ultimately depends on the placement of the aforementioned frontal boundary, ultimately however, much cooler air will likely arrive for the upcoming weekend.

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