Significant snowfall for all of CNY Wednesday and Wednesday night: Dave Longley's blog

We'll enjoy a couple of seasonable days, with highs around 40 Monday and Tuesday. Snow will arrive Wednesday and wind down Thursday. Here are some preliminary thoughts to help you plan.
(WSYR-TV, Syracuse) An area of disturbed weather now entering the Pacific NW will join up with energy creeping eastward along the southern US, to bring us a widespread snowfall for the middle of this week.

Confidence is high in this happening, as all of our forecast tools agree on a scenario where widespread precipitation will occur across all of CNY.

I word it as precipitation, because we're now getting some indication that some sleet could mix in across areas roughly south of Route 20, across the southern quarter of New York State.  That would knock down eventual snow totals.

Winter storm watches are in effect for all of CNY from late Tuesday night, through Thursday morning.

Snow should begin sometime Wednesday morning, and become heavier Wednesday afternoon, into Wednesday night.  While there will still be some snow in the air Thursday morning, the worst of the storm should have moved to our east.  The big issue Thursday will be wind and COLD.  Temperatures will likely be in the teens, with gusty north winds of 15-25 mph.  Wind chills Thursday will be near zero.

How much snow are we talking?  It's still early for specifics, but I would put the odds of 6 inches of more of snow at 90% and a foot or more at 50%.  This will shift slightly as we get an idea of the eventual track of the storm.  Also, we need to figure out how much, if any sleet or freezing rain will mix in.

Temperatures should be in the 30s when the snow arrives Wednesday, dropping into the 20s late in the day.  We're a little over a week from the first day of Spring, so the sun is higher in the sky.  This will likely mean that some of the initial snow should melt on roads through the daylight Wednesday.  Once we approach sunset, and the energy we're getting from the sun is less, roads will become slippery and snow covered later Wednesday and Wednesday night.

Could it miss us?  Not likely.  These types of Spring snowstorms are highly predictable, especially since we're not waiting for a storm to develop along the coast.  This storm will have plenty of moisture to work with, as it takes a track eastward through Pennsylvania.  This morning, the players that would go into making this storm are now over the United States, so we'll get a good feel for it's strength and movement.  We'll be able to get a good analysis of the storm now, with weather balloons and radar, as opposed to when it's over the ocean, when we can only see it with satellites.

The time frame of this storm will be short.  Roughly from midday Wednesday through sunrise Thursday.  About 12-18 hours.

While it's windy and cold Thursday.  By Friday, temperatures will be near 40.  Ah, gotta love Spring.
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