SYRACUSE (WSYR-TV) — The Storm Team 2019 summer forecast is for slightly warmer than normal temperatures in central New York with near normal precipitation.
The biggest driver for our summer outlook is the lingering El Nino. That is the warmer than normal sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. This weak El Nino developed over the past winter and is still with us heading into mid May.
Of the past 10 weak El Nino’s, the average number of 90 degree days the following summer was 12.6 days (average for Syracuse is 9 per year)
Most of the past El Nino years we looked at were within an inch or two of the June-August average of 10.66” rain which point us to near normal rain for the summer. One summer was what we would consider wet (2015 = 15.20”) while just one was dry (1954 = 5.83”).
We will caution that rainfall across the region this time of year can be quite variable due to the nature of scattered summer thunderstorms.
Some have wondered whether the cool weather we have gone through here recently may be a sign of things to come. Probably not. A couple of years, 2005 and 1973, were moderately cool during the month of May (like this year) but still had hot summers. 2005 ended up with 20 days in the 90s while 1973 had 15 days (although most of that heat showed up at the end of the summer during the State Fair).