• Mild weather still with us through late this afternoon.
• Rain returns this afternoon with a cold front.
• A change to colder weather and snow for tomorrow and Monday.
• Lake effect snow warning up for central New York Saturday night into Monday.
• Worst weather comes Sunday night into Monday morning.
• Gusty winds accompany the snow.
A lot of change this weekend over central New York. It is mild to start but very wintry at the end with our first significant snowfall likely accompanied by strong winds.
Our next weather maker, a cold front, will move into central New York this afternoon. There is a wedge of incredible warmth ahead of that cold front right now, and we should get into a piece of that warm air today. Highs in the mid 60s are likely, but if thicker clouds and showers hold out until late Saturday, it’s possible that we could see temperatures near 70 this afternoon.
Rain arrives first in the Finger Lakes mid afternoon, then everyone in central New York by sunset. The cold front moves east of us tonight but will slow down as low pressure forms along the front near New York City then tracks north into western New England. The counterclockwise winds around this low will circulate cold moist air into central New York leading to our first significant snowfall of the season. Part of the snow is from this storm but some is due to Lake Ontario, courtesy of a north-northwest flow over a lake that has an average temperatures still in the low 50s!
A lake effect snow warning is up for most of central New York late tonight into Monday evening.
One thing that will set this storm apart is its duration. Once low pressure gets into northern New England it will slow down. We expect snow around tomorrow straight through to Monday evening. Outside higher elevations, snow accumulations will be light during the daylight Sunday. The worst of this upcoming storm looks like it will occur Sunday night and Monday morning.
The bottom line is this is looking more and more like a shovel-able and plowable snow for many in central New York. Right now, most folks can expect 8-12” by Monday evening with more than a foot of snow possible over the Tug Hill and also in some of the hills just south of Syracuse. Lower totals of 4-8” are possible over the southern Finger Lakes.
In addition to the snow tomorrow, gusty northwest winds of 20 to 30 mph are possible creating wind chill temperatures in the 20s.
Other than a few morning flurries, Tuesday looks quiet with less wind and even some sun. Temperatures after this weekend look to stay cooler.