While temperatures are expected to moderate over central New York for much of the next 7 days one thing is certain: Spring is not ready to arrive.
I hate to be so stark but after seeing headlines floating around about spring temperatures and file footage of people basking outside on a past sunny early Spring days I needed to let central New Yorkers know that shouldn’t get their expectations up too high.
Yes, we do have some milder days coming. 40s were felt in Syracuse Sunday, and by Thursday and Friday we have a shot at 50 degree weather. That hands down beats the wind and near 20 degree weather of much of last week. The reality, however, is these days will be accompanied by at least some rain showers. Not really the kind of days to get outside and really soak up the warmth.
I would even argue that the nicest day of this week probably is going to be Wednesday (high in the mid 40s) because of their combination of some sunshine, dry weather and light winds. It likely will not be the warmest out of the next 7 days but will turn out to be the most Spring-like day we see.
Yes, it will be a teaser. That’s what Mother Nature is good at doing to central New Yorker’s late in the winter season.
Starting next weekend we should get into another pattern where a trough of low pressure sets up in the East with below normal temperatures. You can start to see that trend setting up in the latest 8-14 day forecast issued late last week. That colder than normal pattern should last most of the third week of March.
For those of you that remember our 2018-2019 winter prediction, this actually should come as no surprise. Here is what we posted back in November:
While we don’t think winter will drag on for as long as last winter, for those hoping we are due for an early Spring (i.e. early to mid March) , that doesn’t seem to be in the cards. A large majority of past weak El Nino years (80%) had cooler than normal temperatures in March.
Beyond that third week in March, I don’t have enough information to make a confident prediction.
Trust me, I’m as disappointed reading back what I just wrote as you probably are reading it. It has been a much too busy last 8 weeks here in the weather office as we’ve gone from snowstorms, to windstorms, to ice and the occasional lake effect thrown in for good measure. I know I could use a nice stretch of sunny dry weather with temperatures in the 50s as much as you!