The winter season got off to a fast start in November in central New York. A series of lake effect events and a coastal storm helped contribute to a snowfall in Syracuse of 22.8” which is twice the normal amount.
Fast forward to December and the snow has tailed off. While there has been snow around (it snowed on 19 of the first 26 days) the total amount of snow is lagging compared to a normal December. As of the day after Christmas we stood at 13.4” of snow for December, which is more than a foot below normal.
That has led some to wonder about the winter as a whole. What happens when a snowy November is followed by a lack of December snow? Will the Winter of 2018-19 end up with below normal snow?
We took a look at our previous snowy Novembers and while most of the following Decembers turned out near to above normal with snow, we did find three winters that ended December with below normal snow. Those three all ended up with more than 130” of seasonal snow. That means is we use history as our guide we potentially could be looking at another 85 to 100 inches of snow, more than enough to make any skier or snowmobiler in central New York happy.
While this is not a large sample size, those historical numbers along with a potential pattern change early to mid January should give snow lovers hope.