(WSYR-TV) — The calendar says July, but today’s question has us thinking about those cold winter months.

With gas and diesel prices still painfully high, The Your Stories Team received a question about the outlook for the cost of heating oil this winter.

Patrick De Haan, the lead petroleum analyst for GasBuddy, said we could be paying record highs for heating oil.

“Don’t expect your home heating oil bill to go down at all. In fact, expect it possibly — very likely — the highest home heating bill that you’ve seen.”

Patrick De Haan, Lead Petroleum Analyst for GasBuddy

While many homeowners in N.Y. use natural gas to heat, the state ranks number one in the country for heating oil consumption according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

According to EIA, just shy of 19% of homeowners in N.Y. used fuel oil in 2019. That was well above the national average of 4%.

De Haan said homeowners could be paying $5 to $6 a gallon for heating oil, possibly even higher. He said that one major issue is Russia’s war on Ukraine. Russia is an energy superpower and the sanctions against that country have put a strain on global supply, particularly in Europe.

“A lot of the reason is because a lot of the U.S. oil we refine here tends to be a light sweet crude oil that yields more gasoline. At the same time, much of the Russian oil, tends to be heavy that would yield things like heating oil, diesel, and jet fuel,” De Haan shared.

De Haan said another reason heating prices could climb is due to the strained supply here at home. He said while refineries have ramped up production since being shut down by COVID, supply still remains extremely tight.

“I don’t expect it to materially improve any time soon. Now if there is an economic slowdown, that could help buy some time to build inventories back. But barring that, inventories in US remain extremely tight for diesel and heating oil. 

Have a question for the Your Stories team?

Have a question for the Your Stories team?