–Overnight: clouds, sprinkles, & some showers especially south.
–Monday looks mostly cloudy with sprinkles or a shower possible.
–Cold enough for a lake effect rain shower Tuesday.
–Sunniest, driest and coldest day of the week is Wednesday.
–A few systems increase our temps and chances for rain end of the week.
–First half of the weekend: cloudy & wet. Second half: cooler & drier.
Heading into Monday morning we are watching the approach of a small weather system towards central New York. This system has a lot of clouds associated with it along with some mid-level energy and lift, but it does not have a lot of moisture to work with. Having said that some sprinkles a few light rain showers are possible by the time you wake up Monday morning.
The best locations to see any light shower activity early Monday would be along the N.Y.S. Thruway from Waterloo to Utica and points south. Locations to the north may just see extra clouds.
After this small weather system leaves the area there still may be enough mid-level energy trailing behind it plus some enhancement from Lake Ontario to keep a few showers in the area Monday afternoon. Most locations though will likely just see partly sunny skies, chilly and brisk conditions.
Monday night into Tuesday is going to be interesting. When we forecast lake effect precipitation we look at many different factors including how much moisture, lift and dynamics come into play all at the same time. Right now the level of cold air crossing the relatively warm surface water of Lake Ontario, a steady northwest wind direction, potential upper-lake connection and a few other factors could allow for some lake effect rain to affect the area Tuesday morning and afternoon. This is still a few days away and the forecast could change.
High pressure then builds in for Wednesday with lots of October sun, but temperatures will still be a good 10-15 degrees below average.
Later in the week a southerly flow and a few areas of low pressure will allow temperatures to warm up into the 50s along with chances for rain. The weekend at this point looks 50/50. Saturday looks warm and wet, while Sunday looks cooler and drier.