With the Memorial Day Weekend upon us we felt we would share our thoughts of what our summer might look like.

Shifting global pattern

What we know at this point is that globally we are coming out of a La Niña and as of late spring we were transitioning into an El Niño.

An El Niño refers to warmer than normal sea surface temperatures in equatorial Pacific Ocean. La Niña’s are just the opposite, cooler waters in that same area of the Pacific.

Everything we’ve read so far in terms of forecasts indicates that we are headed toward a ‘moderate’ or even a ‘strong’ El Niño by the time we reach the winter season of 2023-‘24

We found 15 years that fit that criteria since 1950 and there were at least some clues to what our summer might be like based on those years.

Temperatures different than in past summers

Temperature-wise there seems to be a distinct signal toward a cooler than normal summer.  Nine out of the 15 years that ended up with moderate to strong El Niño’s had cooler summers. In those nine years we averaged five 90 degree days. That is half our yearly average.

Only one of the 15 years, 2002, had temperatures for summer that would be considered above normal.

Each of the last three summers in Syracuse landed in the Top 15 hottest list.

Rainfall gets back on track

The signal for rainfall pointed toward us ending up with near normal rainfall.

A bit more than half of the years (8 out of 15) had near normal rainfall for June through August. Normal is 11.12” or a little less than four inches a month.

There rest of the years were split between above and below normal rainfall.

If we were to average near normal rain the next three months that would make up for the dry May Central New York had.