Looking Ahead: How quickly does summertime warmth typically leave CNY?

Weather

SYRACUSE, NY  (WSYR-TV)

Now that the New York State Fair is in the rearview mirror and the kids are all back in school, central New Yorkers are getting into their fall routine. From a climatological standpoint when can we reasonably expect the warmth of summer to make its final visit to Syracuse?

Ever since early August our ‘average’ high and lows have been slowly been dropping.  As of early September, the average high was down to 76 and the average low to 56 and will continue to drop until we are in the heart of winter. However, there are many peaks and valleys that make up the ‘average’

We looked back at weather records in Syracuse all the way back to 1902 and came up with an average date of last 80, 70 and 60 degree weather. Here is what we found.

Average last 80+ degree day       October 1st

Average last 70+ degree day       October 31st

Average last 60+ degree day       November 29th

It is interesting to see some of these thresholds closely mirror some  important holidays (Halloween and Thanksgiving)

Remember, this is not a forecast for this year just how things have worked out over the past 100+ years of record keeping in Syracuse.  For example, in 2018 our final 80+ and 70+ day ended up on back to back days (October 10th and 11th respectively)

While we can’t guarantee for sure there will be more 80 degree weather in our future, temperatures for the middle of September seem like they are trending toward above normal.  Looking at the latest 8 to 14 day forecast from NOAA, the greatest chance for above normal temperatures is over the Deep South with a slightly better than even chance for above normal temperatures in central New York.

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