What NOAA’s La Nina Advisory could mean for CNY’s upcoming winter

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(WSYR-TV) — The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has issued a La Nina Advisory. This means there is at least a 75% chance of La Nina conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the upcoming Northern Hemisphere winter.

In order to have La Nina conditions, oceanic temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean are colder than normal. There is a relationship or feedback between the ocean water and the atmosphere. This relationship results in changes in the position and orientation of the jet stream. The jet stream moves weather systems around the globe.

In terms of snowfall, La Nina winters on average in CNY run a little below our seasonal snowfall of 123″.

Below is a table of snowfall in Syracuse in La Nina winters since 1950 when snowfall measurements began taking place at the airport.

WinterSnowfall
1954-5599.4″
1955-56146.8″
1961-6277.3″
1964-6597.3″
1967-6881.2″
1970-71157.2″
1973-74123.2″
1974-75105.5″
1975-7695.8
1984-85116.4″
1988-8997.8″
1995-96170.9″
1998-9998.3″
1999-0085.8″
2000-01191.9″
2007-08109.1″
2010-11179″
2011-1250.6″
2016-17134.6″
La Nina Winters in Syracuse and the subsequent snowfall

Given the information above, 7 of the La Nina winters in Syracuse had above-normal snowfall, and 9 had below-normal snowfall. Winter is considered to be normal in Syracuse, with snowfall around 123″.

Of course, it’s too early to get into specifics on this winter, but the presence of La Nina will certainly be one of the pieces in the winter puzzle for Central New York. The NewsChannel 9 Storm Team will have its winter prediction in November.

In the short-term, La Nina conditions tend to favor dry and warm weather in the western US, which would favor more wildfire weather in areas already ravaged by fires.

Additionally, La Nina conditions support an uptick in tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin. For more on the tropics, please visit The National Hurricane Center.

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