SYRACUSE, NY (WSYR-TV)
The Storm Team 2021 Summer outlook for Central New York is calling for warmer than normal temperatures during the three month period of June through August.
Rainfall is expected to end up below normal this summer.
We looked at three few key factors when working up the forecast and while none of them were ‘slam dunks’ there were trends that pushed us toward the warm and dry summer forecasts.
First and foremost, this past winter was one of the least snowiest on record (since airport record started in 1949). This past winter ended up at 73.3” of snow. When looking at the winters where we ended up with less than 80 inches, we found that 5 out of the 8 years ended up with a warmer than normal summer. Two were near normal and one was slightly below normal. Again, not 100% predictive but a trend there.
Next, we focused on the sea surface temperatures in the equatorial waters of the Pacific Ocean. Those waters were cooler than normal throughout the winter meaning we were in a “La Nina” but are forecast to moderate this summer and turn out closer to average, or what is called “Neutral’ conditions. In the most recent years that occurred, 2012 and 2018, the following summers turned out warmer. 2012 ended up as the 4th warmest summer since 1950.
Finally, despite a soggy beginning to May, our spring months of March through May have been drier than normal and if we continue at our current pace we would end up within the top 15 driest springs on record.
Out of those 15 years in question, ten continued the dry trend right through the summer months. Only four of the summers ended up above normal in rain and just one, 2010, was well above normal.