SYRACUSE, NY (WSYR-TV)- The Storm Team Summer Outlook for 2022 is for above-normal temperatures with near to below normal rainfall.

When we make our seasonal forecasts we like to use recent notable weather patterns when we project ahead. This time, the lack of snow this past winter really sticks out. Syracuse had just 76” which is more than 50 inches below normal!

If we take a look at winters with less than 85 inches of snow, there does seem to be a tendency for the following summers to be warmer than normal. Our sample size is 13 years since the beginning of record-keeping at Hancock Field.  Seven out of those 13 summers ended up in our Top 25 hottest summers on record, including last summer.

We got a taste of Summer this past weekend with heat and humidity across Central New York.  On Saturday, May 21st, we reached 90 degrees for the first time this year. Our average first date of 90-degree weather comes June 5th.

Does this early heat signal anything for our summer?

We looked at years since records have been kept at the airport (1949 and on) and through 1999, there had been ten years where 90-degree heat came in May and only three of the following summers had June through July temperature averages significantly above normal.

In the years since the turn of the century, we’ve had an additional ten years with 90-degree weather in May but in those following summers, 6 out of 10 were above normal including last summer.  Only one of those summers, 2015, had below normal temperatures.

A rainfall forecast is a bit trickier because many times in the summer you are at the mercy of scattered summer thunderstorms which can drop an inch or two of heavy rain in one town and in one 20 miles away little or nothing will fall.

However, looking back at those same 13 low snowfall years, only three had above normal summer rainfall (including last summer). Eight summers were below normal in rain. Hmmmmm.

This is not a 100% guarantee in either case but certainly some strong signals.

If you are looking for nationwide trends for the summer, NOAA has released their summer forecast and along with the Northeast, they project the West to have the best odds of above-normal temperatures.  And in terms of rainfall, it is not good news for the drought-stricken areas of the West with below normal rainfall projected.